The mood at the Hotel Investment Conference South Asia (HICSA), the annual hospitality industry conference was rather upbeat. But hotel brand operators and owners remain cautiously optimistic of the outlook and are living on a hope that a third wave of the pandemic doesn't become a reality. Having just survived the unprecedented zero revenue situation, the two day confrence organised by consulting firm Hotelivate, was dotted with anecdotes and best practices adopted by the hotels of all hues.
Besides their country of origin, General Motors, Ford Motor and Harley-Davidson have another trait in common: all three have failed in India, the world's fifth largest automobile market. All three of them took a tough call to de-prioritise India as a market amid disruption from heightened regulations and sharper focus on capital allocation by the parent.
The government has tweaked the income tax laws to make it easier for the new owners of loss-making public sector undertakings (PSUs) to carry forward the accumulated losses and set them off against future profits. This will result in significant tax savings for the new owners if they are able to turnaround operations of the ailing PSU within a few years. This will, in turn, boost the post-tax earnings and returns for the new owners.
First-time buyers of cars and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) have made a comeback, shows last year's data from top passenger vehicle (PV) makers. If the trend persists, it may move the needle on the overall car penetration ratio. India's car penetration ratio is 32 per 1,000 people - one of the lowest, compared to mature car markets like the US and Europe.
If the court order is implemented, it will lead to an increase in the insurance outgo for car owners by a minimum Rs 50,000 for car and a minimum of Rs 7,000 for two-wheeler owners.
For automakers, the festive season is about raking it in through ramped up sales and attractive consumer offers. However, despite the robust demand, what may spoil the party this year is a global shortage of semiconductors.
For Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), which has just started executing a comeback strategy for wresting back ground it lost to rivals, this could not have come at a worse time. The maker of the Bolero Neo and the Thar models on Thursday said it would have to halt production at its automotive plant for a week due to the worsening supply situation of semiconductors.
In a rare face off, captains of the auto industry have hit out at the government for not walking the talk. At an industry event in the capital on Wednesday, R C Bhargava, chairman of India's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki, and Venu Srinivasan, chairman of TVS Motor, questioned the government's intent to support the auto sector. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj sat in the audience listening, before his turn came to counter them.
After the hit of the pandemic, India Inc is now worried about the adverse impact of inflation and higher commodity prices on their revenues and margins. The inflation scare is the strongest among manufacturers of consumer goods such as automobiles, consumer durables, and fast-moving capital goods (FMCG). Companies across sectors fear they will not be able to pass on the hike in input costs to their consumers due to weak demand, which, in turn, would lead to a hit on margins and profitability in the forthcoming quarters.
Its production declined for the third consecutive year in financial year 2020-21 (FY21) to an 11-year low, while sales volume contracted for the second year to the lowest since FY15. The company manufactured around 1.08 million vehicles last fiscal, a decline from 1.17 million the previous year, and a steeper fall from its all-time high tally of 1.62 million reported in FY18.
SoftBank-backed Ola Electric took the wraps off its maiden e-scooter offerings -- Ola S1 and S1 Pro -- for a commercial launch on Sunday. With prices starting from Rs 99,999 (excluding state government incentives, registration fee, and insurance cost), the Bhavesh Aggarwal-founded firm said the e-scooters are designed and engineered in India for the world and will deliver the best scooter experience to the consumer. He suggested that after 2025, sale of petrol-powered two-wheelers should not be allowed.
With a robust outlook for mineral-led growth in India, Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Limited is looking to invest up to $20 billion across its businesses, which includes doubling of silver production and steel capacities. In a virtual press conference had last month, Agarwal said the company planned a capex of $5 billion over a period of three years. The company has not given a timeline for $20-billion investment.
After outperforming the broader market and their public sector peers for the better part of the post-Lehman period, private sector banks - such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank - are now underperforming. Last week, the Nifty Private Bank index was up just 6 per cent year-to-date in the calendar year 2021, against nearly 13 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and a 15 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty50. Public sector (PSU) banks, such as State bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Punjab National Bank, are now rally leaders and outperforming the broader market. The Nifty PSU Bank index was up 42 per cent since the beginning of this calendar year. But on a longer term, the Nifty Private Bank index is up 101 per cent since March 2016, against a 118 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and just 2 per cent rise in the Nifty PSU Bank index in the period.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
The entry of SoftBank-backed Ola into the electric scooter (e-scooter) segment is set to power up the overall market and perhaps fast-track the adoption of battery-operated vehicles. But for manufacturers of internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered two-wheelers, such as Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and TVS Motor, it will be a double whammy. Not only will they have to contend with the aggressive pricing of Ola's scooter and incur a loss at each unit of the e-scooter sold, the volumes of their regular (ICE) models, too, could feel the squeeze, observed analysts. Ola is expected to price its e-scooter in the range of Rs 85,000-1.1 lakh.
Top companies have grabbed a bigger pie of their sectors in the pandemic period, leading to a further rise in market concentration in many industries as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI score, which indicates competitive intensity in an industry (or a lack of it), reached a new high in FY21 as bigger firms raised their revenue market shares either organically or through mergers and acquisitions. A higher HHI score indicates a rise in market concentration in favour of a few firms while a lower score means that the industry's revenue is more evenly divided among many companies
'On an average we have been getting four to five such proposals a month, but we aren't pursuing them as they don't tick the boxes.'
The rally in mid- and small-cap stocks has spilled over into the IT sector as well. Second and third-tier IT stocks, which historically traded at a discount to the big five IT companies, are now trading at nearly 25 per cent premium to their large-cap peers. The smaller IT companies have a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of nearly 38 times against the big five's current P/E multiple of around 31x.
Mobile operators with the exception of Reliance Jio are in a much worse financial condition than expected earlier. The combined borrowing of the four incumbent operators - Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea, Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL), and Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) - reached an all-time high of Rs 3.85 trillion at the end of March this year. The companies' combined debt was up 22.4 per cent year-on-year last financial year against 8.3 per cent growth in their borrowing in the previous year. As a result, the incumbent operators' debt-equity ratio shot up to an unsustainably high level of 6.83X at the end of March this year from 2.3X at the end of March 2020. This was largely due to big losses reported by all these companies last financial year. The four incumbent operators racked up combined net losses of Rs 70,000 crore in FY21.
With the threat of a third Covid-19 wave looming large, companies are scrambling to protect employees and keep operations safe--from a no-jab-no-entry-at-workplace policy to ramping up vaccination, it's an all-out effort to prevent the scale of devastation seen in the first two waves. At least two top steel companies--Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India)--are pushing for vaccination certificates for entry into work premises. AM/NS India, a joint venture between world's leading steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, and Japan's Nippon Steel, is set to make vaccination the certificate a requirement from July 1.
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